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Who Will Win Big Brother 19?

We break down the odds

Sadie Gennis

We've made it.

Big Brother 19 will crown its winner on Wednesday during the two-hour season finale, bringing to a close one of the most frustrating seasons in recent years. Fortunately, we know we'll have Celebrity Big Brother to cleanse our palate this winter before the regular edition of the CBS reality show returns next summer. But first, the jury will have to vote on which houseguest will receive the $500,000 grand prize.

Of course, we still don't know which of the three players left standing will make it to the Final 2, but we do know it will be some combination of Paul, Christmas or Josh. We already know if Paul wins the final HOH, he'll bring Josh with him and if Josh wins, he's bringing Christmas, but Christmas' decision remains unknown (although we're betting it will be Paul).

After the Final 2 is determined on Wednesday, the winner will have a chance to make their case before the jury, made up of Cody, Mark, Elena, Matt, Jason, Raven, Alex, Kevin and the as-yet-to-be-determined next evictee.

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So who has the best chance of winning Big Brother 19? We break down the pros and cons of each of the Final 3's cases, plus predict how the jury votes will land.

Plus, vote in our poll to let us know who you think will win.

Paul Abrahamian, Big Brother 19
Sonja Flemming/CBS

There's really no arguing with the fact that Paul is the person who most deserves to win this season, but that's practically by default. Yes, Paul ran the house and was such a puppet master that he got every single houseguest to throw an HOH without even playing a single round. He was behind practically every single eviction this season, while still managing to convince most of the exiting houseguests that he was still on their side.

However, the biggest oversight in Paul's strategy became painfully clear during the latest jury segment when all the evicted houseguests began sharing about their alliances with Paul, leading to everyone -- except poor, sweet, ridiculous Raven -- to see just how much he played them. While some of the jury members had nothing but respect for the way Paul completely owned them all summer, others (cough cough Jason) are clearly too bitter at his betrayal to ever give Paul their vote.

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Beyond the potentially pissed off jury, the main problem with Paul's game is that it doesn't make him seem like a Big Brother genius; it just makes everyone else in the house look like idiots. If Cody had stuck around longer or if there had been more players in the house who were keen enough to catch on to Paul's increasingly obvious strategy, it could have raised the stakes and forced some exciting, big moves to go down. Instead, we got a season filled with sheep with Paul as their shepherd.
Likely jury votes: Alex, Raven, Matt, Christmas, Cody
Likely holdouts: Jason, Josh
Swing votes: Mark, Elena, Kevin

​Christmas Abbott, Big Brother 19
Sonja Flemming/CBS

Everyone loves a good comeback story. That universal truth is going to make up the bulk of Christmas' case in Wednesday's season finale. Despite breaking her foot early in the season, she did show great courage in her decision to persevere and recover in the Big Brother house. She also proved to be one of the few people in the house who had the ability to wrangle Josh -- a skill which turned out to be shockingly useful in the end -- but her blindness to Paul's manipulation, even when pointed out to her, shows that she isn't exactly the most perceptive player.

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It would also be extremely easy for either Josh or Paul to poke holes in Christmas' case by pointing out that her wins were all handed to her by Paul -- that is, in the games where she was even allowed to compete in. All one has to do is remind the jury that the woman with her foot in a boot won Ready, Set, Whoa to prove that when it comes to her claims of being a strong competitor, Christmas doesn't have a leg to stand on.
Likely jury votes: Kevin, Jason, Josh, Paul
Likely holdouts: --

Swing votes:
Mark, Elena, Raven, Matt, Alex, Cody

Josh Martinez, Big Brother 19
Sonja Flemming/CBS

We never thought we'd be saying this, but Josh actually could have a decent case - relative to this season, of course. Compared to a lot of other Big Brother finalists, Josh (and Christmas) are so far beneath their level it's not even funny. However, when looking at the Final 3 of 19, Josh might prove to be a total wildcard for the jury. It's no secret that most of the jury members either actively dislike Josh or at the very least don't respect him. Because of that, Josh's shot at winning will rely entirely on two things: how he sells himself and how much the jury doesn't like who he's facing off against.

It wouldn't be hard to spin his horrific behavior in the first few weeks into a triumphant story of his growth as a player. He could then point to his two HOH wins and one Veto win as proof of his strength as a competitor. He could even discuss how he used his reputation as a crybaby to play other contestants, putting on shows of fake fights and breakdowns to use their own assumptions to his advantage.

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Josh should also get some credit for being one of the only people for seeing Paul's game for what it is. If he had taken a shot at Paul and backdoored him as he had hoped to this week, there wouldn't be any question over who should win this season. However, the fact that Josh missed all his chances to take a shot at Paul also proves that he doesn't have the courage to make the big moves that this game thrives on and won't earn him much respect from the jury.
Likely jury votes: --
Likely holdouts:
Cody, Jason, Alex, Christmas, Paul, Kevin, Mark
Swing votes:
Elena, Raven, Matt

Big Brother 19's two-hour finale airs Wednesday at 8/7c on CBS.

(Full disclosure: TV Guide is owned by CBS.)