The Walking Dead ended the first half of Season 10 on a cliffhanger. Alpha (Samantha Morton) lured a squad of Alexandrians into an ambush, trapping Carol (Melissa McBride), Daryl (Norman Reedus), Aaron (Ross Marquand), Jerry (Cooper Andrews), Magna (Nadia Hilker), Connie (Lauren Ridloff) and Kelly (Angel Theory) in an underground cave packed with a horde of walkers.

The Descent-inspired midseason premiere will find the gang trying to escape the cave, but chances are not everyone will make it out alive. We have a theory about who it will be, and, well, let's just say things aren't looking good for our dude Jerry.

There are a few people we know it won't be. It won't be Carol or Daryl, the show's main characters. Nor will it be Aaron, who's at the top of the show's long list of second-tier characters. No, if someone dies in this episode, it will probably be one of the newer but well-liked characters, which leaves Jerry, Magna, Connie, and Kelly.

Magna's relationship with Yumiko (Eleanor Matsuura) is on the rocks, so for her to die now would leave that story unresolved. That could certainly happen, as The Walking Dead leaves relationship storylines unresolved with some frequency (this is not a criticism, it's part of the structure of the show and can be deployed to painful effect, most recently with Rosita [Christian Serratos] and Siddiq [Avi Nash]). But we have a feeling that the writers have big plans for Magna in the upcoming Whisperer War, in keeping with her role in the comics.

Everything We Know About The Walking Dead: World Beyond

The same goes for Connie, but even more so. It would be disappointing to see her die before her relationship with Daryl progresses. Killing her now would make her story feel incomplete in an unsatisfying way. Plus, there are still so many unique things the show can do with a deaf character that it would be a shame to lose her now.

Connie's sister Kelly is a little more uncertain. Her death would greatly affect Connie's storyline, and Daryl and Connie could further bond over losing their siblings (Daryl memorably put down his brother Merle [Michael Rooker] after Merle turned). Kelly will probably die at some point in the relatively near future, as she's going deaf, but isn't accepting it, leaving her vulnerable to accidents and ambushes. But there are bigger dramatic possibilities for that kind of death than to use here in this cave.

Which brings us to Jerry, King Ezekiel's (Khary Payton) easygoing right-hand man. Unfortunately, Jerry seems to be running out of story. He doesn't have much of a relationship with any major character besides Ezekiel, and Ezekiel has terminal cancer. Jerry will be orphaned if he doesn't die in the cave. So he deserves a dramatic hero's death helping his friends escape the crawlers walkers. And from the looks of the trailer, Jerry gets in big, big trouble in cave, getting trapped in a hole with walkers swarming beneath him. Sorry, Jerry. We love you, but it looks like your time is up.

The Walking Dead Season 10 returns Sunday, Feb. 23 at 9/8c on AMC.

Norman Reedus, Ross Marquand, Angel Theory, Cooper Andrews, and Melissa McBride, <em>The Walking Dead</em>Norman Reedus, Ross Marquand, Angel Theory, Cooper Andrews, and Melissa McBride, The Walking Dead