Will third time be a charm for HBO's Veepat Sunday's Emmy Awards?

The political comedy is going for its third straight win in the Outstanding Comedy Series, but there are a few up-and-comers who might unseat the show. Let's break down one of the biggest races on TV's biggest night.

The nominees: Veep is up against fellow former winner Modern Family, as well as newcomer Atlanta, and previous nominees black-ish, Master of None, Silicon Valleyand Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt.

What will win: Putting your money on another Veep victory is probably a safe bet. The show and its leading lady, Julia Louis-Dreyfus (who will probably walk away with her sixth Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy award on Sunday) are darlings of the Television Academy, and political humor is more necessary and appreciated than ever in the tumultuous year that is 2017. Black-ish, Kimmy Schmidt, and Modern Family have the slimmest chances, because they lack any nominations in the writing and directing categories, a crucial factor in determining voter love for the shows.

Another tell-tale sign: Veep took home the casting prize at last week's Creative Arts Emmy Awards, which it's also done in the past two years leading up to its Primetime Emmy victories. That's a huge indicator that lots of people in the voting bloc think Veep is continuing to raise the bar even in its sixth, penultimate season.

What should win: One potential spoilsport could be FX's Atlanta, especially if the Academy's members want to prove that they're young and hip. Donald Glover's new series broke new ground in comedy with its simultaneously moving and hilarious depiction of struggling rappers in the titular city. But if history is any indication, the voters will stay with the safe, familiar choice of Veep (also a deserving show in its own right). They might throw Atlanta a bone in the form of an Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy prize for Glover.

The 69th Primetime Emmy Awards air Sunday at 8/7c on CBS.

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