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Our top pick is a sweet surprise

The Traitors
Euan Cherry/PeacockOnce a year, the dramatic flare of the Housewives, the grit of Survivor, the duplicity of Big Brother, and all the other traits that can help you survive any corner of the reality TV world are deployed in a castle in the Scottish Highlands for a competition like no other.
Season 4 of Peacock's Emmy-winning competition series The Traitors returns Jan. 8 to foster new alliances and encourage more treacherous backstabbing in the hunt for the Traitors and the survival of the Faithfuls. Host Alan Cumming will welcome a new class of characters to his castle for the competition that has gripped audiences around the globe — there are so many international spin-offs! — and brought attention to what really matters: Cumming's stunning fashion.
For the new season, we have broken down the preseason lineup and their chances of surviving the bloodbath in the Highlands. Even before the Traitors have had their shoulders tapped, which celebrities have the best chance to make it to the end? Below is our wild, completely subjective ranking.
Everything you need for winter TV:

Maura Higgins, The Traitors
Euan Cherry/PeacockLast place before the game hasn't even started isn't a slight against Maura. But the Love Island alums have always been wild cards in this game. Their previous competition experience is wildly different from the skills it takes to win The Traitors, so time will tell. Are you a Bergie or are you an Ekin-Su?
Never underestimate a global star boosting a fanbase with their own nickname — Nam Nation, in this case. But Eric has to rise above being GQ Korea's Man of the Year to become more than just a pretty face on the chopping block. In the castle, that isn't the intimidating threat it might be out in the real world, and you can be seen as a means to an end like Sam Asghari.
While Ballas has proven to be a winner on the dancefloor, he feels a bit out of his depth in the Traitors castle. We hope he proves us wrong! But with a sweet disposition and great hair, he feels like someone who could get murdered early on to further the Traitors' cause without sowing too much anger.
The Housewives have a varied history in this game. They are always among the first targeted because these contestants don't understand how good TV works. You keep the Housewives around! That being said, some of their game play has been to the level of Phaedra Parks. Some have skewed more toward the ineffectiveness of Shereé Whitfield. Either way, Candiace has the steepest hill to climb to being a formidable player among her fellow Housewives this season.
Another case of "Can a handsome man known for falling in and out love in a bubble translate to this game of deception and strategy?" Rob has a little more fire in his previous TV appearances to give us hope he may be ready to play.
ALSO READ: Everything to know about The Traitors Season 4
The previous alums of RuPaul's Drag Race definitely give Monét room to rise on this list once the season gets underway. But she will have to avoid the pitfalls that came before her: Bob the Drag Queen played way too hard to be a Traitor (even if that is a reflection of Bob's personality and brand) and Peppermint faced immediate suspicion for no reason. Monét has a chance to change the legacy of Drag Race in the Traitors castle because frankly it can only go up from here. She will just have to leave any bad habits she learned from her close friend Bob at the front gate.
It's hard to gauge how Caroline will do because she is an international addition to a largely American cast. Her Housewives brand is a little different than her fellow potstirrers, but her lesser known profile among Housewives novices could let her stay under the radar better than others.

Stephen Colletti, The Traitors
Euan Cherry/PeacockHear us out on this one: Stephen is a very likable guy. That can go two ways: an easy early murder (ala Wells Adams) or an asset to use to get to the end (Dylan Efron). Where will the Laguna Beach and One Tree Hill alum land on that spectrum? We hope it's the latter because he is fun to have around.
We love Dorinda and Season 3 was always going to suffer for murdering her first! So Season 4 is a real opportunity to right a wrong and give the people what they want — Dorinda at the Roundtable! That being said, if she is too aggressive right out of the gate to avenge last season's lost potential, it could make her an easy target again.
She can cut clean on the ice, but can she take her second wind as one-half of an ice-skating commentary dream team with fellow contestant Johnny Weir to the next level? There's something about her sweet demeanor that makes us wonder if she has enough bite to go far.
It felt like a crime to separate Johnny from his other half Tara, but the real question is whether they will have to turn on each other. While they aren't afraid of some catty commentary, we don't see them murdering the other unless one of them is a Traitor — then it would be a great deflection. But something about Johnny makes us think he will play a bit harder than Tara.
As one of the few actors here, Michael comes with more facial recognition than most of the contenders. However, Michael is not known for his subtlety. And based on early footage, he isn't caging his temper one bit at the Roundtable. That blunt-force personality can be used as a shield by the Traitors, who could keep him around to deflect suspicion (if he isn't a Traitor himself). But that's if he doesn't talk himself into banishment first.
Never count out Lisa Rinna. A big personality and an even bigger reputation to uphold, one of the Founding Mothers of Reality TV will be a delight in the Traitors castle no matter how long she survives. But we are putting it out in the universe that she sticks around awhile simply because we want to be entertained and she never disappoints.
In many ways, Colton is the Tom Sandoval of the season. While his brand has changed in the years since his time on The Bachelor, he also has some controversial baggage that could be used against him at the Roundtable. That being said, Colton could charm his way to the end simply from wielding his past and present to his advantage.
Ron is, by far, the actor with the best chance to go the distance this season because he is just here for the fun. He says as much in the first trailer! But a funny, self-deprecating contestant is not threatening, and easy to mold to your needs. Someone in the castle will realize that and keep Ron close.

Porsha Williams, The Traitors
Euan Cherry/PeacockHaving built an empire on her name, Porsha knows how to make the case for herself. That is an invaluable talent that many who sit at the Roundtable simply don't have. While still a big character with a capital C, Porsha feels like the best chance for the Housewives to go farther than most of their predecessors.
In just a few short years, Tiffany has become a major figure on the competition series circuit after making a splash on Big Brother 23. She also appeared in both seasons of CBS' The Challenge: USA. But Tiffany, above all else, is a smart player who is great at building alliances. Here, that could prove essential to forming a team either in the turret or at the Roundtable.
The winner of Survivor 44, Yam Yam proved to be a force when it came to establishing a team and carrying it through to the end. That will do him well in the castle, but his kind personality will also bolster his connection with his fellow players. Like all the Survivor players, he has endured more than the cozy castle will throw at him. It's just about adapting those strengths to a cunning game of insular manipulation.
A winner of Top Chef and its new host, Kristen has an understanding of what it takes to win and make good TV at the same time. That is a great quality in a Traitors player (and a Traitor themselves!), and it bodes well for Kristen. Few people take issue with and most have incredible respect for her, which is a great place to start when you step into the castle.
One of the fiercest players to ever play Survivor, Rob has made a career on the strategic calculations of reality competitions. His podcast, aptly named Rob Has A Podcast, was a leader in the field of dissecting every power move made by contestants across the board. As long as he doesn't overanalyze his time in the castle, he stands a good shot at taking everything he's learned from his own gameplay and others' all the way to the final bonfire.
Having played one of the best Big Brother games ever, Ian has reserved his skills for the right moment and The Traitors is kind of perfect for him. However, while we see him sticking around, he will have to battle against a less-than-favorable reputation for Big Brother alums, following closely on the heels of last season's Danielle Reyes implosion and his old buddy Dan Gheesling's own blunders. Given they were both Traitors, maybe Ian could win by not seeing the turret.
Natalie knows how to fight. It served her well on Survivor, where she and her twin Nadiya bookended the San Juan del Sur season — Nadiya was first out, and Natalie won. She fought her way back from the first elimination in Survivor: Winners at War and ended it as the runner-up. She has also been on The Amazing Race with Nadiya. There's not much Natalie can't do, so we are thrilled to see her add a stab at Traitors glory to her mantle.

Donna Kelce, The Traitors
Euan Cherry/PeacockThis might put a little too much faith in the morality of the Faithfuls and the Traitors, but who really wants to be the one to murder and/or banish Travis and Jason Kelce's sweet mom? Would you want to incur the wrath of Taylor Swift's fans for going against her future mother-in-law? We just don't see that happening, at least not at first. Plus, a maternal figure willing to fight for those she cares about like they are her own children did wonders for Cirie Fields' game in Season 1.
The Traitors Season 4 premieres Thursday, Jan. 8 on Peacock.