Survivor Season 40 Recap: Here's Who Will Win Now That Tony Has Blown the Game Wide Open

For weeks, Sophie Clarke, the strategic, quirky queen of Survivor that social media cannot get enough of, had us all convinced that she would win Survivor: Winners at War. She had a hidden Immunity Idol. She had a great social game. She even had a loving edit on the show.

But then along came Tony Vlachos. And now we have much to discuss on the latest podcast episode of Survivor Brothers -- including our latest odds on who will win.

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In this week's episode, your Survivor-loving superfans Fox Van Allen and Lance Cartelli break down Tony's thoroughly entertaining madness in this week's Survivor: Winners at War installment, "This Is Extortion."

Your hosts discuss how Parvati Shallow and Natalie Anderson's plan to extort Tony may have actually helped his game, the logic behind Nick Wilson (aka Evil Vampire Donathan, aka Woo Number Two) flipping on Sophie, and the absolute shock that Tony was able to pull everything off without a hitch.

But wait, there's more: With Sophie now on the Edge of Extinction, which of the remaining eight castaways are contenders for the $2 million prize? Your Survivor Brothers hosts break down the odds:

Jeremy Collins: He's an amazing competitor, but he's in a really bad place, game-wise, and has very little control over his own destiny. The Survivor Brothers put his odds of winning at 25:1.

Ben Driebergen: Adam doesn't like Ben. Jeremy doesn't like Ben. Boston Rob doesn't like Ben. It's not looking great for him. He's an 85:1 shot.

Michele Fitzgerald: This social threat can really work the runway, but more importantly, she has a lot of friends on the Edge of Extinction jury. But has she been out of power too long? Her odds are 20:1 to win.

Sarah Lacina: She's weaker without Sophie, but she might just beat out Tony in the end thanks to her social game. We put her odds at 2:1.

Kim Spradlin: Kim is a hard-playing strategist who keeps finding herself in the voting minority. But it'd be a mistake to count her out because she's got all the right reads on the game. Did her unsuccessful idol play in the previous episode actually win her points with the jury? The bros think she's a 6:1 shot to win.

Denise Stapley: Denise doesn't have the power right now. But she's super-likable, and she's got a really big move under her belt. Could she swing things in her favor in the final few tribal councils? The brothers put her odds at 50:1.

Tony Vlachos: Absolute contender. He's the biggest target, but he's holding a Hidden Immunity Idol. Could he make it to the end, only to lose? Our odds on his win are 3:2.

Nick Wilson: You would be hard-pressed to find someone with a lower chance of winning this season of Survivor, given Nick's goofball edit. We'd say more here, but he's probably standing behind us right now listening in. Dude is a 100:1 shot.

Someone on the Edge of Extinction: Sure, Sophie Clarke could come back and win. Tyson Apostol could, too. But Lance has his eye on another skilled player on the Edge who could come back and surprise everybody. The Survivor Brothers hosts think there's a 40:1 shot one of the Edge of Extinction players will win it all, just like Chris Underwood did in Season 38.

Want even more insight on these players' chances? Just click play below. Or better yet, subscribe to Survivor Brothers on Apple Podcasts, and get the bros delivered straight to your device every week.

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Survivor: Winners at War airs Wednesdays at 8/7c on CBS. You can watch every season of Survivor on CBS All Access.

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