How to Get Away with Murder will finally reveal the poor soul who's #UnderTheSheet on Thursday's winter finale. It's ostensibly down to two possibilities: Frank (Charlie Weber) and Nate (Billy Brown), aka the two people most viewers presumed would be the "final two" for drastically different reasons.

But is it one or the other, or a third party who had already been taken out of the running, so to speak? Let's weigh the pros and cons for each of them.


Frank
Why it's him: Well, for starters, he's pointing a gun at his own neck the last we left him. From a storytelling perspective, Frank's death would make the most sense. As I've said before, he's on a redemptive tragic figure arc, and now we know he's willing to die for Annalise (Viola Davis) to be like, "Sorry for causing your son's death and not telling you about it for 10 years." Annalise and Bonnie (Liza Weil) — his surrogate family (I know, I know, he and Bonnie slept together) — are seemingly done with him, Laurel (Karla Souza) has moved on with Wes (Alfred Enoch), so in his mind, he has nothing to live for.

Frank is also already in Annalise's house. Even if he doesn't shoot himself, someone else could (whether on purpose or accidentally), and the fire could be set to cover it up. The promo, which you can watch above, has an up-close shot of a match being lit, held by black hands. We're gonna say those are Annalise's appendages, based on the nice, manicured nails and the faint glimpse of a watch on the left wrist. In a later shot in the promo of her lying on the floor, you can see a watch on her left wrist. Sure, she could just be lighting candles for a relaxing bath, but it's probably for that fireplace in which she appears to be burning old case files.

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Why it's not him: It's too obvious. The Grim Reaper has been looming over Frank since Annalise ordered a hit man on him in the premiere. This is a show that loves twists and shockeroos, so to carry out something that it's been hinting at would be out of character.


Nate
Why it's him:
He's the most expendable. As my Friend Rachel Green would say, "You lift right out." It's not monumentally exciting or shocking, but maybe the death itself isn't supposed to be exciting or shocking. Think about the past two fall mysteries. Wes killing Sam in Rebecca's honor wasn't a major surprise. The real twist was that Annalise was in the room and in on the cover-up. Last year, Wes shooting Annalise was hardly an OMGWTF, but the Christophe reveal was. So by that logic, Nate's comparably meh death could set in motion a totally new curveball.

Why it's not him: Uh, he's the most expendable. His death wouldn't have quite the devastating impact on everyone as the cast has described, especially compared to Frank. Nate is only connected to everyone else through Annalise, and it'd be somewhat of a letdown if the person who's dead is someone who's had about 43 seconds total of screen time the past two weeks.


Someone else
My money is still on this. The show loves red herrings and fake-outs. And as multiple cast members have warned me, "it's a long night." Read: Just because someone was revealed to be alive during the night of the house fire, it doesn't mean they survive the night. I think we can safely rule out Bonnie, Oliver (Conrad Ricamora), Laurel, Michaela (Aja Naomi King) and Asher (Matt McGorry) since they've all interacted with each other at the hospital after the fire. Wes and Connor (Jack Falahee), however, have yet to be seen with the other folks after the fire. Wes' immunity meeting with the cops and Connor's revenge-sex with Thomas (Matthew Risch) could all have happened before someone burned Annalise's house down.

If it's between Wes and Connor, I'm going with Wes. As I've explained here, his death would impact everyone the most. And he was the answer to the previous two winter finale hashtags (#WhoKilledSam, #WhoShotAnnalise), so why not make it three for three?

How to Get Away with Murder airs Thursdays at 10/9c on ABC.