Yes, the year is only half over, but already awards guru/ host Tom O'Neil is proffering his predix for Best Picture nods at the 2006 Oscars. And guess what? You haven't seen a single one of 'em. Yet. Making O'Neil's shortlist: Steven Spielberg's yet-to-be-titled drama about the hunt for the murderers of 11 Israeli athletes at the 1972 Olympics; Jarhead, a saga about a U.S. Marine serving the first Gulf War, from director Sam Mendes (American Beauty); Memoirs of a Geisha, a lavish epic from Rob Marshall (Chicago); Goodnight, and Good Luck, director George Clooney's take on journo Edward R. Murrow's battle with Sen. Joe McCarthy; and Tommy Lee Jones' first crack at acting/directing, The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada, which was a big hit at Cannes. Somewhere, Russell Crowe is reaching for a phone.