- Lead Actor
- George Clooney, Michael Clayton
- Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
- Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
- Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
- Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Who Will and Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
If there's a lock this year it's Day-Lewis: Even people who hated There Will be Blood were blown away by his performance. It's acting with a capital A: an accent, a limp, spittle.... There's no beating that. And his devoting the bulk of his SAG acceptance speech to an exceptionally gracious, articulate and heartfelt appreciation of the late Heath Ledger won the sometimes-distant actor a boatload of goodwill. That said, every one of the nominated actors deserves to win, but that's just not the way these things work, is it?
- Lead Actress
- Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
- Julie Christie, Away from Her
- Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
- Laura Linney, The Savages
- Ellen Page, Juno
Who Will and Should Win: Julie Christie
How do you beat Christie's wrenching performance as a vital, intelligent woman with Alzheimer's drifting away from her devoted husband and into a disconcerting relationship with a fellow nursing-home patient? The work is subtle and heartbreaking, and Christie — decades after her swinging heyday — still has the great-beauty-who-can-really-act edge. Cotillard's turn as doomed French songbird Edith Piaf has the raw power, but ultimately I don't think Academy voters are going to go with a performance in French in a foreign film that wasn't nominated in a single other major race — not even best foreign-language film. Linney's and Page's performances are beautifully nuanced, but the material they worked with didn’t pack the same gut-punch. Blanchett does a bang-up job of triumphing over shallow material, but her nomination is her reward.
- Supporting Actor
- Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James…
- Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
- Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
- Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
- Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Who Will Win: Javier Bardem
Who Should Win: Hal Holbrook
Playing a flashy psychopath is up there with playing someone mentally or physically challenged: Everybody notices and everybody is impressed, and that's going to work in Bardem's favor. (It already has, twice.) The big loser will be veteran Holbrook, 83, whose low-key performance in Into the Wild is nothing short of breathtaking. If there's a groundswell of support for Michael Clayton's subtle virtues, British actor Tom Wilkinson (you didn't know he was a Brit, did you?) could reap the benefits, but it looks to me like a two-man race.
- Supporting Actress
- Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
- Ruby Dee, American Gangster
- Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
- Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
- Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Who Will and Should Win: Cate Blanchett
This is a hard call — the nominations are full of spoilers. Voting could go to Dee because she's 83 and has been doing great work for six decades. Or it could go to Ronan, who was 13 when Atonement was shot. (Who wouldn't want to encourage such a talented child?) Or Academy members could throw their weight behind the commercially underappreciated Clayton, which they recognized in six major categories, creating a rising tide that could just lift all the nominees. I have trouble imagining the award going to Amy Ryan, mostly because Gone Baby Gone just didn't ring anyone's bells in Hollywood. Good movie, but… I'm still going for "Great Cate" Blanchett: She clearly has the respect of her peers — not just those who nominated her — and you could vote for her eerie performance as Bob Dylan on the basis of a clip rather than having to sit through all of the, um, challenging I'm Not There.
- Best Picture
- Atonement
- Juno
- Michael Clayton
- No Country for Old Men
- There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Who Should Win: Michael Clayton
Golden Globe winner Atonement looks like the perfect Oscar winner: English, literary, bitterly ironic and not dripping gore, even in scenes depicting the horrors of WWII. But this year there will be blood, if the Globes, SAG Awards and Critics' Circle honorees are anything by which to judge. I have trouble imagining poor, clever, refreshing little Juno taking best picture from one of the big toughs on the block, and I'm not sure that Michael Clayton — a smart, sadly cynical, deeply thoughtful thriller — can stand up against the brawny one-two competition of No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood. Of those two, my money is on Old Men. When it comes to the general voting body of the Academy, I think Blood's length and icy refusal to deliver a single character with whom the average person can identify will work against it. Old Men is relentlessly dark, but it's also eminently watchable.
- Best Directing
- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Julian Schnabel)
- Juno (Jason Reitman)
- Michael Clayton (Tony Gilroy)
- No Country for Old Men (Joel and Ethan Coen)
- There Will Be Blood (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Who Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen
Who Should Win: Julian Schnabel
Despite painter-turned-filmmaker Schnabel's surprise win at the Globes, I see the Coens taking this one. I don't feel a lot of love for Anderson (and I can't imagine him getting the adapted-screenplay consolation prize when Away from Her and Diving Bell are in the running), and the blizzard of buzz about Old Men is something to reckon with — a force I don't see Juno or Clayton being able to withstand.
- Original Screenplay
- Juno
- Lars and the Real Girl
- Michael Clayton
- Ratatouille
- The Savages
Who Will and Should Win: Michael Clayton
This is a tough one, but my call is veteran screenwriter Gilroy because in my gut I feel he's not getting best director or best picture for Michael Clayton and thus this will be his reward. But newcomer Cody could be the upset winner: The spunky, funky and altogether likable Juno clearly made a powerful enough impression on the Hollywood community to score multiple nominations against a small army of weightier pictures. Nancy Oliver's Lars and Tamara Jenkins' Savages are too off the mainstream radar, and Ratatouille will get its just deserts (culinary pun intended) with a best animated feature win.
- Adapted Screenplay
- Atonement
- Away from Her
- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
- No Country for Old Men
- There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win: Atonement
Who Should Win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
I can't imagine anyone who's read The Diving Bell and seen Schnabel's film not giving this award to Harwood. But I think a lot of the Academy's members haven't, which gives the advantage to the other U.K. playwright, Hampton, and the oh-so-classy Atonement. Do actress-turned-filmmaker Polley, the Coens and Anderson stand a chance? Sure. In particular, Anderson's reworking of what amounts to a small portion of Upton Sinclair's sprawling Oil! — family epic, social satire and political position paper all rolled into one — into a tightly focused script is a major-league effort. But next to nobody's read Oil! either.
- Best Animated Feature
- Persepolis
- Ratatouille
- Surf's Up
Who Will Win: Ratatouille
Who Should Win: Persepolis
Year after year, voters favor homegrown animation over the more ambitious, adult animation produced all over the world — and Ratatouille happens to be extremely good homegrown animation, unlike inexplicable nominee Surf's Up. I'd much rather see the award go to the visually striking and emotionally resonant Persepolis, but let's face it: A dubbed, B&W, adult-oriented animated feature just doesn't have "Hello, Oscar" written all over it, in this or any other year.
