Since the plane-crash takeoff of ABC's Lost (Wednesdays, 8 P.M./ET), lots of theories have been floated to explain the mysterious occurrences on the survivors' new island home. However, only three are believable enough to fit in our overhead compartments (in other words, our brains). Which one flies with you? At the mid-season mark, we consider the evidence...

Everyone's dead.Where but in heaven could wheelchair-bound Locke take a hike? And hello?! Jack's late dad looked pretty spry for a dead guy. What's more, the prominence of black and white rocks is likely a Biblical reference, to Urim and Thummim, holy stones that turned any day into one of the judgment variety. Then again, why were unlucky stiffs "Adam and Eve" rotting while everyone else is merely tanning? And if she'd already croaked, how did that woman we never met manage to drown? Perhaps this island of lost souls isn't the end of the line but rather a rest-stop purgatory on which sinners like prodigal son Jack are sent to mend fences with the Almighty before passing through His pearly gates — or die (again) trying.

It's a government conspiracy.The fact that Lost is the brainchild of Alias creator J.J. Abrams makes this hypothesis almost too obvious. However, if the multitasking TV mogul isn't planning a crossover in which we learn that the supposedly defunct SD-6 is to blame for that fateful plane crash (and every shocking incident that has followed), some country still could have elected to turn our heroes into its own personal ant farm. Think about it: Every conceivable need can be met by a member of this "random" group. Doctor? Yep. Hunter? Yep. Mr. Fix-It-type electronics whiz? Yep. Coincidence? No way! Plus, the sabotage of Sayid's attempt to track the distress signal means that someone (read: Big Brother) wants the gang to remain stranded.

They're on Mars.Before scoffing, remember that Abrams ended Felicity with a plot involving both time travel and witchcraft. Besides, only in a galaxy far, far away could an airliner's nosedive inflict so many minor boo-boos. And even in the cosmos, a nonfatal touchdown would require a tractor beam so powerful, it would be the envy of Vulcan. (Keep in mind: The plane fell so fast, passengers hit the roof — literally; that ain't normal.) In addition, the polar bear and mystery monster scream "ETs playing Mother Nature" — and taking miscues from the comic book found in the wreckage. Therefore, it follows that the whispers Sayid heard that drove Frenchwoman Danielle nuts were being made by little green men. Forget Alias' Sloan; this is the handiwork of The Simpsons' Kang and Kodos!