Amanda Kimmel, Cirie Field, Natalie Bolton and Parvati Shallow by Monty Brinton/CBS Amanda Kimmel, Cirie Field, Natalie Bolton and Parvati Shallow by Monty Brinton/CBS
Survivor: Micronesia has been full of shockers (from Jonny Fairplay quitting to stupid,stupid Ozzy!), making for some crazy-fun Tribal Councils. So we were very anxious to hear definitive Survivor expert

Jeff Probst's thoughts on the final four castaways as we approach the May 11 season finale (8 pm/ET, CBS). We caught up with him to see who he thinks will take the prize. - Megan Walsh-Boyle Parvati "Parvati's strength is also her weakness - she's made moves and alienated people. That's the only way you're going to get to the end in this game and she did it. And so she's got a lot of damage control to do. Bringing Natalie and Alexis over to the alliance is a move that could bite her in the ass, because Amanda and Cirie could realize, "we've got to get rid of this girl - she's getting too many people on her side." Amanda "I'm really curious about the showdown between Parvati and Amanda that has to be coming at some point. What's working against [her] is that people might want to go against Natalie before Amanda in the final. Amanda's likeable, she has played hard and you've got to assume she's got Ozzy's vote - one vote in that final jurythat can be the difference." Natalie "The problem Natalie is going to have is that Cirie, Parvati and Amanda seem to be fairly tight. Maybe Natalie's move should be to look at what happened with Ozzy and see if there's anyway to get Amanda on her side. The best thing going for Natalie is that Parvati and Cirie are doing all the damage and they are going to take all the hits at final Tribal Council. She hasn't alienated that many people." Cirie "She's gotten a little cocky this season - she has told a couple of people, "I know what time it is. But one of Cirie's strengths is just sitting there, letting everybody know that she can't win a damn challenge to save her life. She's just laughing and trying to make things fun, but look at what she's doing - she has made a lot of moves this season." And the Winner Is. "I'd say Cirie's a favorite to win, but I'd put Amanda in there as a favorite - that's who I like. The people that have the most work to do are Natalie and Parvati, for different reasons." Comparing This Season to Others "I try to be as honest as possible. Fiji was not a great season. I would love to erase that one. China was an excellent season, and Fans vs. Favorites I think was even better because there's just so many dynamics. It seems pretty clear having played the game once does give you an advantage. If we had this kind of cast every season, we'd never go off the air."