Jon Hamm, Julianna Margulies Jon Hamm, Julianna Margulies

Most years, the best we can hope for from an Emmy night is a few new winners and a few (arguably, as always) correct winners. This year, the probability for fresh blood at the winners' podium is especially high, given what a terrific season it was for freshman series. (The same will not be said for the batch of new shows about to premiere over the next month.) What follows aren't exactly predictions, because that game can be such an unhappy crapshoot, given the capricious nature of Emmy voters, who tend to vote for what they've always voted for, year after year — until they suddenly don't. (For a list of nominees, and a chance to play along, click here)

This is my take on how I'd like to see things go in the major categories, with some handicapping on why some are more likely to win than others.

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