Arrow fans have been on pins and needles all summer waiting for Season 6 to arrive and tell us which characters made it out of that fiery explosion on Lian Yu and which characters perished in the blast.
The only two people who we can definitively call unexploded are Oliver (Stephen Amell) and his son William (Jack Moore), who were both floating on a boat offshore when the charges went off. Everyone else? Totally fair game.
Let's run down the list of those most likely and least likely to die.
Felicity (Emily Bett Rickards): Least likely to die
Sorry haters, there's just no way. The time when it would have been okay to kill off Felicity Smoak came and went somewhere in the middle of Season 1. Seeing as it's already been announced that Felicity will pop up in a small crossover with The Flash this season, the odds of her survival are good. Plus, when you factor in that goodbye kiss in the finale — the one that finally opened the door back up for Oliver and Felicity romantically — there's just no chance she's dead.
Black Siren (Katie Cassidy): Safe and sound
We've seen new footage of Black Siren in the Season 6 trailer, plus Cassidy is officially a series regular again. Seems like a weird move to kill off someone you just signed on to be in a bunch more episodes this year. Plus, she's in the premiere pics. Doyyy!
Slade (Manu Bennet): Nope, he's all good
Slade also has some new footage in the Season 6 trailer, and Stephen Amell himself confirmed at Heroes and Villains Fan Fest that Slade will be back "multiple times" this year. Not to mention, Arrow is finally introducing Slade's son. Now that Slade is finally free of the Mirakuru insanity (and kind of seems to be on Oliver's side again) there are just too many tempting, juicy stories to explore with him to kill him off for good.
Quentin (Paul Blackthorn): Pretty unlikely
Detective Lance has to survive, if only because we barely got a taste of what his potential father/daughter relationship with Black Siren could look like. What do you do when your daughter comes back to life, but it's not technically speaking your daughter? Lance has had to ask himself that question more than once, but this time it's extra juicy. He ain't going anywhere.
Diggle (David Ramsey): Probably not... right?!
Diggle is really the only person who could go either way. On one hand, he's so deeply rooted in the show that it seems like nonsense to talk about him getting killed off. But on the other hand, isn't that a great reason to kill off a character? If Arrow really wants to hit us where it hurts, killing Diggle would be a blow most fans couldn't recover from.
As much as we love the new team members, it's hard to imagine Arrow building up a major character death this much, and then killing off a character who — strictly speaking — isn't exactly major. On the other hand, each character has won themselves a spot in our hearts along the way, making them excellent cannon fodder instead of actual major characters who have been around much longer than them.
Thea (Willa Holland): We're genuinely worried
Narratively speaking, Thea Queen is at a bit of a dead end. She's given up the hero life, meaning that unless aliens attack out of nowhere, she's no longer part of the crime-fighting activities that make up the DNA of the show. Holland was only used sporadically in Season 5, lending further credence to the idea that she may no longer be a necessary character in an already packed cast. We'd hate for Oliver to lose yet another family member, but we're genuinely worried for Thea.
Malcolm Merlyn (John Barrowman): Yes... but maybe no?
Malcolm Merlyn apparently died in an off-screen landmine explosion, saving Thea's life in the Season 5 finale. As far as Arrow deaths go, that's a pretty vague one, but Barrowman has officially left the show. Either way, Merlyn is a cockroach — even if he is dead, there's always a chance that he'll return in a flashback or via some magical League of Assassins loophole.
Samantha (Anna Hopkins): Most likely to die
Nothing is ever certain on Arrow, but all the evidence we have about Season 6 seems to point towards Samantha being a goner. Why else would William now be living with Oliver in Star City? Put simply, she's a convenient character to kill off. She matters enough as Oliver's baby mama to give the premiere some gravitas, but she's not quite so important that fans will start picketing in the streets.
Arrow premieres Thursday, Oct. 12 at 9/8c on The CW.