Thursday-Night Lights
The networks get ready for a prime-time war

The networks and ad buyers on Madison Avenue are deep in negotiations over the price of commercial time for next fall's prime-time schedule, and at least a third of their $9 billion take (that is, the networks hope it'll be that much) will be spent on Thursday night. That explains why so many good shows this fall will be airing on the same night. It's looking like one of the great network-scheduling steel-cage matches in history: Grey's Anatomy vs. CSI vs. Deal or No Deal all battling it out at 9 pm/ET.

ABC could have gotten higher ratings if it left Grey's Anatomy, the current supernova of prime time, on Sunday at 10 pm or moved it to Monday at 9. The move to Thursday at 9 will cost the network some viewers, but remember, ratings are meant to be sold to advertisers. The massive numbers of women ages 18 to 49 who could follow the show to its new slot will in turn attract movie studios and retailers who are willing to pay a premium to reach them on the night before the weekend. ABC really hasn't been a serious player on Thursday since the days of Mork & Mindy and Barney Miller.

But will Grey's fans really show up on Thursdays? It will be a lonely island surrounded by new, untested comedies in the 8 pm hour and a new drama, Six Degrees, at 10. That's a lot of heavy lifting. History is on ABC's side: CBS was not in business on Thursday for years until it put Survivor there in 2001 — against Friends. Fox wasn't even programming Thursday before it moved The Simpsons to that night in 1990.

The question for CBS is whether CSI can take the hit. Again, it's a game of demographics. Grey's will certainly win viewers ages 18 to 34. CSI will be the leader in 25- to 54-year-olds. It will likely be a dead heat for 18- to 49-year-olds, with Grey's getting the edge. CBS hopes that it can hold on to the lead in total viewers — it's nice to be able to say you have the most-watched drama on television.

And NBC isn't making it any easier by deciding to move Deal or No Deal into the hour. Deal was the No. 1 show last week, and this past Monday's season finale should finish on top as well. At this point, however, the competition is taking NBC's move lightly.  "It's doing great now, but it's the least objectionable show in the time period," says one network exec. "It's never been tried against tough competition."

NBC scheduled Deal in the hour because there was no way its new drama from Aaron Sorkin, Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip, would have had a chance against two megahits. But while Deal may be an alternative, its audience is not exactly what NBC has chased after on that night. Thursday has long been where NBC has had the most affluent viewers (and advertisers like you more if you're rich and young). As popular as it is, Deal or No Deal reaches a more downscale audience than most of its other shows.

So what does all this mean for the viewer? It's time to get a TiVo.