Nate Silver

With the Oscars fast approaching, it's time to finalize your bets on which films will take home the night's top prizes.

2014 Academy Awards: Who will win?

Ahead of the night's broadcast, ABC enlisted ESPN number-crunchers Nate Silver and Walter Hickey to analyze some trends from past years. Among their findings: New York City is the most popular setting for Oscar nominees, husband-and-wife pairings are the relationships most often depicted in nominated films, and the most common cinema trope among past nominees is a good old-fashioned face slap.

Of the nine films that are nominated for Best Picture this year, 12 Years a Slave comes closest to matching Silver and Hickey's criteria.

Check out their analysis below. Which movie is your pick to win Best Picture?


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The Academy Awards air live on ABC beginning at 8 p.m. ET.