2013 Golden Globes Predictions: Who Will Win?
Claire Danes, Damian Lewis
It's that time of the year again: awards season! The fete-ing all kicks off Sunday with the 70th Golden Globe Awards (8 ET/5 PT on NBC). Will Homeland continue its awards show winning streak? Is Lincoln the film to beat? Check out our predictions below and tell us your picks for the big prizes.
Check out the full list of Golden Globe nominees
Will win: Homeland
Many had problems with Season 2 of the Showtime hit, but the defending champ remains the hottest, most talked-about series, and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is all about the cool factor. Its seminal "Q&A" episode alone is enough to warrant a second trophy.
Watch out for: Downton Abbey
This is Downton Abbey's first series nomination at the Globes (it won miniseries/TV movie last year), and the aristocratic throwback ought to appeal to the foreign press. Also keep an eye on The Newsroom. The Globes love to be the first to coronate a new show and the HBO drama is the only newbie in the lineup, making it in over three-time champ Mad Men.
Will win: Girls
It took the Globes three years to acknowledge Modern Family, so while a repeat win wouldn't be unexpected, we're not banking on it. Of the rest, Girls has the most working in its favor: a hip, new critical favorite with a refreshing voice from Lena Dunham.
Watch out for: Smash
We would not put it past the Globes to actually award Smash.
Will win: Damian Lewis, Homeland
The HFPA was the first awards body to recognize the reigning Emmy champ with a nomination last year, but he'll take home the gold this time for his increasingly conflicted POW.
Watch out for: Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
If voters still don't want to play catch-up with Breaking Bad and reward Bryan Cranston, Daniels' stirring pilot rant could clinch this for him. Plus, the chances of either Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire) or Jon Hamm (Mad Men) winning their second trophy are slim: Only Hugh Laurie (House) has won more than once in the past 29 years.
Will win: Claire Danes, Homeland
Is there anything better than Danes' cocktail of love-struck, paranoid crazy? The new mom ought to maintain her perfect record at the Globes and go four-for-four. Fun fact: Danes would be the first to win two in a row in this category.
Watch out for: Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
If the Globes want to go for a fresh face champ, Dockery has extra points over Connie Britton (Nashville), with her hit, buzz-y show also nominated for series.
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Will win: Louis C.K., Louie
The multi-hyphenate would be an atypical choice for the Globes, which is partial to slick, glamorous fare, but his nod signifies that the HFPA is ready to jump on the C.K. train.
Watch out for: Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
The Globes is still a fan of LeBlanc, the defending champ, and his Hollywood satire, with him being one of the few freshman carryovers from last year.
Will win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
We'd love for someone to finally award Parks and Recreation's Amy Poehler (and it could totally happen with her co-hosting the show), but JLD's exasperated VP is a brilliant hoot. A win for her would also continue the streak of cable ladies dominating this category.
Watch out for: Lena Dunham, Girls
The Globes has a thing for young, new stars, and Dunham is Girls.
Supporting Actor in a Series, Miniseries or TV Movie
Will win: Ed Harris, Game Change
The miniseries and movie nominees have an advantage over the series folk.
Watch out for: Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Shows rarely make a clean sweep at the Globes, but Homeland can do it if voters want to give Patinkin some hardware for being the understated force behind the drama. This is first major nomination for the show.
Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries or TV Movie
Will win: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
The Dowager Countess lost last year to Jessica Lange (American Horror Story), who isn't in the running this year, so look for the HFPA to atone for that. Smith is also up for film comedy/musical actress for Quartet, which she won't win (see below), so this is the place to salute the great dame.
Watch out for: Hayden Panettiere, Nashville
While a nod was somewhat predicted for Britton, few saw one for Panettiere coming. But the actress — a starlet right up the HFPA's alley — has made Juliette a bad girl we love to love.
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Will win: Argo
Ben Affleck's third directorial effort is the happy medium between Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty: a smart, historical, taut thriller that celebrates showbiz and almost seems too good to be true. (The HFPA is surely fond of the scene set in the Beverly Hilton Hotel — where the Globes ceremony takes place.) Plus, the Globes loves big-name stars, so it won't be able to resist having both Affleck and producer/HFPA fave George Clooney on stage. Don't be surprised if Affleck takes the director trophy too. (Yes, he was snubbed by the Oscars, but Globes voting closed before Oscar nods came out.)
Watch out for: Lincoln
Steven Spielberg's superbly crafted American tale, which leads the field with seven nominations, has the edge in prestige and emotional heft.
Will win: Les Miserables
When there's an actual musical in the lineup, the HFPA will go for it more often than not, even when there's nothing comedic about it, like in Les Miz's case. Opinions may differ on the divisive Tom Hooper adaptation, but the film ought to benefit from its risky live-singing efforts and voters' familiarity with the beloved source material.
Watch out for: Silver Linings Playbook
The high-wire rom-com brings the heart and the laughs.
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Easy win. DDL should snatch up his second Globe for his transformative turn as the 16th president that's just in a league of its own.
Watch out for: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Phoenix's mesmerizing work in The Master is next best, but will the HFPA, which loves to schmooze, be able to overlook his diss of awards shows? Nominating him is a good sign.
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Will win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Chastain singlehandedly carries ZDT with such steely tenacity that it's all the more powerful when you notice the subtlety which she infuses her laser-focused CIA agent.
Watch out for: Naomi Watts, The Impossible
If voters are itching for an in-your-face emotional gut punch that Chastain's performance lacks, then they'll check off Watts, who's all tears and fight in a heartbreaking true story of survival.
Will win: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
A win is all but certain for everyone's favorite movie star song-and-dance man. Not only does he show off his vocal chops, but Jean Valjean is a far weightier role than that of his competitors. The Globes was also the first major awards show to nominate Jackman, having done so 11 years ago in this category for his big Hollywood break Kate & Leopold.
Watch out for: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Cooper's carefully modulated portrait of an unhinged, intense and lovesick man is revelatory if you only know him from The Hangover flicks.
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Done deal. Lawrence's electric performance aside, the HFPA falls head over heels for ingénues, and there's no one hotter than Katniss herself right now.
Watch out for: Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Dench had a banner year between Skyfall and her heartwarming turn in Hotel that proves it's never too late for a fresh start.
Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
DiCaprio's star factor is a huge plus for him. Nevermind the fact that his delicious, against-type villain turn is his most fun since Catch Me If You Can.
Watch out for: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Jones, who defeated DiCaprio 19 years ago at the Globes and the Oscars, steals the show with his cranky abolitionist.
Will win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Another lock. You can't beat the star + singing + sacrifices for the role (haircut, weight loss) combo.
Watch out for: Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
OK, it's really Sally Field (Lincoln) who's nipping at Hathaway's heels, but Kidman is the wildcard. A Globes favorite (she's won three times from eight previous nominations and has a concurrent nod for Hemingway & Gellhorn), Kidman burns as a wild, sultry sexpot in an otherwise woeful film.
Who do you think will win?
Watch Golden Globes Fashion Wrap with Ali Landry on Monday at 8/7c on TV Guide Network.